New modelling released by the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing (DoHDA) paints a stark picture of Australia’s medical workforce future — a projected shortfall of 12,812 full-time specialist doctors by 2048, representing a 9.7% gap in workforce needs.

While the overall number of doctors is projected to reach 200,000 by that time (close to meeting total requirements due to an anticipated oversupply in the generalist medical workforce), the specialist pipeline tells a different story. An undersupply of 6,981 full-time specialists is already predicted by 2033, and without significant intervention, that gap nearly doubles over the following 15 years.

What does this mean for general practice? The RACGP’s own workforce strategy, launched last year, identified a GP shortfall of approximately 3,620 full-time specialist GPs in 2025 — a figure expected to grow substantially without action.

Training Numbers on the Rise, But Not Fast Enough

A record-breaking 1,772 doctors began general practice training this year, and a landmark $751.3 million five-year GP training grant agreement was confirmed in February. The RACGP is advocating for annual GP training numbers to increase from 1,350 to at least 1,850 over the next five years.

As the college’s strategy states: “If Australia seeks to achieve a sustainable home-grown general practice workforce over the medium to long term… a commitment to invest in growth over this period will go a long way to filling the projected shortfall.”

The IMG Dependence Challenge

The DoHDA report also highlights a growing reliance on international medical graduates (IMGs), whose numbers have tripled from 21% to 34% of the total workforce since 2003. The authors warn that current settings are “unlikely to achieve self-sufficiency or fix the leaks in the pipeline (retention) due to limited career prospects.”

For GP recruiters and practice owners, this is a critical signal. The IMG workforce will remain an essential component of Australian healthcare for years to come, and practices that can offer compelling opportunities to overseas-trained doctors will be well-positioned.

Maldistribution — The Other Half of the Problem

RACGP Vice President Dr Ramya Raman emphasised that raw numbers don’t tell the full story: “When we speak about workforce, we need to be considering maldistribution, the setting as well as the geography.” The DoHDA report itself warns that “inequitable access is likely to remain a key issue” due to geographic maldistribution of practitioners.

For GPs and practices in DPA and regional areas, the competition for available doctors will only intensify. The new RACGP Expert Committee on Workforce, expected to be confirmed next month, will focus on bringing together evidence, lived realities of practices, and patient needs.

What This Means for the Sector

The message from this modelling is unambiguous: Australia cannot simply train its way out of the shortage. Retention, better distribution, improved practice conditions, and smarter use of the IMG pipeline all need to be part of the solution. For GPs considering their next move, the leverage has never been stronger. For practices, making your position stand out — whether through location, remuneration, flexibility, or support — has never been more important.

This article draws on reporting from RACGP newsGP — read the original here: https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/professional/specialist-doctor-shortfall-projected-to-widen